| 2009-10 Season Preview: Phoenix Suns Authored by Andrew Perna - October 27, 2009 - 11:38 am
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Last Season’s FIC Rank: +5.4, 11th
Key Additions: Channing Frye
Key Subtractions: Shaquille O’Neal, Matt Barnes
Key Rookies: Earl Clark, Taylor Griffin
Probable Starters: Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, Amare Stoudemire, Channing Frye
Point Guard: Steve Nash’s body is getting worn down, but he says he has at least a few seasons of high quality basketball left. He’s a smart player, which makes it possible for him to remain effective past his physical prime.
Phoenix is going to need a replacement for Nash soon, though, and there isn’t one currently on their roster. Goran Dragic is a solid reserve, but can’t play major minutes as a starter for an NBA team. Nash will go down in history as one of the best point guards of his generation. His court vision and offensive awareness are unparalleled, although his defense has long been knocked as terrible.
Nash led the league in assists in three straight seasons (from 2005 to 2007) and he has averaged a double-double in four of the last five seasons. With Phoenix’s “Seven Seconds or Less” attack installed once again, look for his numbers to spike up after a down year. With that said, coach Alvin Gentry could look to preserve Nash if the playoffs appear likely.
He has finished in the top ten in eight consecutive seasons in offensive win shares, assist percentage, effective field goal percentage and true shooting percentage. He’s the kind of player that isn’t appreciated as much now as he will be a few years after his playing days are over.
Swingmen: Jason Richardson is a terrific athlete and fits right in with the team’s style, but he’s a tad overpaid. He’ll make close to $28 million over the next two seasons and he’s really only the team’s third or fourth option. Richardson will race down the floor for a number of uncontested dunks while running the floor with Nash for a full season and he has developed into a decent three-point shooter.
He had a points per 100 possessions mark of -3.3 last season, but I expect that number to improve with the team’s fast-paced offense back. He is a good rebounder though not a tough defender, which leaves the Suns vulnerable on the perimeter alongside Nash. Richardson is unlikely to score in the mid-20s anymore, as he did often with the Warriors, but he’s certainly a threat to explode on any given night in Phoenix.
His shot isn’t extremely consistent -- his three-point percentage has varied by ten percent over the last four seasons, his field goal percentage seven percent and his free throw percentage by twelve percent.
Leandro Barbosa, who will also play some point guard, is one of the league’s quickest players. He is small, but can drive to the basket with relative ease because of his quickness. Barbosa is one of the game's most underrated shooters from the perimeter, with a career percentage from distance of over 40%. He’s a better playmaker than he was when he came into the league, but needs to take better care of the basketball.
Grant Hill will play a majority of his minutes at small forward, even though he is capable of playing some shooting guard and power forward as well. Along with Nash, Hill has one of the highest basketball IQ’s in the game. Because of the pair’s intelligence, the Suns can play their fast-paced style without risk of a huge numbers of turnovers.
He has never had range from three-point land, but can hit one on occasion if left open. Injures have robbed him of the athleticism that allowed him to post averages of 25.8 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals (in 2000 with Detroit), but he still very effective.
Jared Dudley, Alando Tucker and Taylor Griffin will battle for minutes behind Hill. Like with Nash, Gentry might look to preserve Hill for the second half of the season and the playoffs. That should leave plenty of minutes for the aforementioned trio.
Frontcourt: Amare Stoudemire isn’t going to be back to 100 percent at the start of the season, but he’s rounding back into form after an eye injury limited him to 53 games last season. Despite some past knee issues, he still has tremendous athleticism and agility in the paint. If he doesn’t use his quickness to beat big men inside, he’ll overpower them with his strength.
He has never averaged a double-double in any of his seven NBA seasons, but has come very close to 20/10 in five of those seven campaigns. Stoudemire could see some time at center to begin the season with Robin Lopez recovering from a broken foot. He split minutes at power forward/center last season, while Channing Frye will help soften the blow as well.
Stoudemire can sometimes focus too much on his own offensive game, but appears refreshed and focused following a tough recovery from scary surgery. He can be an MVP-caliber player on a nightly basis if he remains healthy and exerts some effort on the defensive end. He has the skills and physicality to be an elite defender -- see his career average of 1.5 blocks per game -- but doesn’t always play to his ability.
Lopez isn’t as much of an impact player as his brother Brook, but he runs the floor well and his defense is ahead of his offense at this point. If you can run, you’ll find a role in Phoenix. Lopez’s defense is needed as well, especially with some many offensive weapons already in the holster.
Frye hasn’t lived up to the tremendous promise he showed during his rookie season in New York, when he averaged 12.3 points and 5.8 rebounds. However, his strong mid-range game and conditioning should give him a strong shot to excel in Phoenix. He’ll begin the season as the team’s starting center because of the Lopez injury, and could grab hold of the gig if he produces in the season’s first month.
The Suns have a gem in Earl Clark, who possesses the skill set of a guard but has a forward’s body. He’s 6’10”, but could be the team’s replacement for Hill at small forward if Stoudemire stays and either Frye or Lopez lock down the center spot.
Forecast: Phoenix missed the playoffs by two games last season, but they appear headed for another spring run with a healthy roster, added depth in the paint and their successful offensive game plan reinstalled.
Andrew Perna is Deputy Editor of RealGM.com and co-host of RealGM's Radio Show. Please feel free to contact him with comments or questions via e-mail: Andrew.Perna@RealGM.com. You can also follow Andrew on Twitter: APerna7. |
