| Two MVPS, Too Many DNPs: 2008-2009 Phoenix Suns Preview Authored by Brett Callahan - September 11, 2008 - 2:11 pm
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As long as the Lakers, Rockets, Jazz, Spurs, and Hornets are around, it seems highly unlikely the Suns will, at best, make a push past the second round of the playoffs, despite having a wealth of talent.
New General Manager Steve Kerr, has wasted little time transforming this squad from an all-out offensive juggernaut to one that will at least attempt to play defense. Despite the team compiling an overall record of 232-96 over the past four seasons (55-27 in 2007-08), up over 22% in the win column than the previous four seasons, Kerr knew what everyone else knew: you can’t win an NBA Championship without a respectable defense. The moves he made, however controversial they may be, are his first steps in that direction.
Replacing the openly disgruntled Shawn Marion was a change that looked inevitable. Apparently he grew tired of playing the third man behind Nash and Stoudemire. Hats off to that mode of thinking, because now Marion finds himself behind Dwyane Wade and Michael Beasley with a much worse supporting cast. Acquiring Shaquille O’Neal’s monstrous contract in return was anything but what most expected when dealing Marion. O’Neal is still the only guy in the league who can toss around Yao Ming, but he is considerably slower and thicker. Much like adding a Suburban to a fleet of Ferraris, he will have an awfully hard time keeping up.
Perhaps a bigger departure is that of recently fired head coach Mike D’Antoni. He joined the Suns the same year as Nash in 2004 and led the team to those 232 wins. He moves on to the Knicks, and Detroit assistant, Terry Porter, takes over in Phoenix. Porter only compiled a 43% winning percentage with the Milwaukee Bucks during his two seasons there, but many were impressed with his focus on defensive intensity that allowed them to make the playoffs despite several critics labeling them a lottery-bound team.
Porter and the Suns do hold the added benefit of having an above average supporting cast in Grant Hill, Raja Bell, Leandro Barbosa, and Boris Diaw. Hill and Bell round out the starting lineup and, despite constantly facing injury, provide excellent defense, solid shooting, and on-court awareness. Diaw and Barbosa, two players curiously mentioned in trade talks, have both exploded into two of the top benches players in the league with Barbosa winning the 2006-07 6th Man of the Year award while averaging 18.1 ppg and 4 apg.
Looking forward, Phoenix only has obligations to Stoudemire, Diaw and Barbosa past the 2009-10 season, at which point Nash will be 36 and O’Neal 38. Kerr is making a run for a championship now, but just as quickly as Shaq will eat up his $40 million contract, so too will the team see its’ chances of winning the Larry O’Brien trophy fade away.
The 2008-09 season looks like it will shape up to follow the Suns recent trend in a slow decline down the ranks of the Western Conference. They have a good chance at winning above 50 games, clinching a playoff berth and exiting by the first, maybe second round.
Position Breakdown
Point guard: Nash, Barbosa, Dragic, Singletary
Position Grade: A
Nash will have to hold off Chris Paul and Deron Williams for the rank of the best point guard in basketball, but even they cannot come close to matching his passing skills and shooting efficiency. Having a backup who can score 30 at will, and who would probably start on twenty-five other rosters makes Nash and Barbosa the best one/two point guard combo in the league. The team has high hopes for Slovenian rookie, Goran Dragic, but early projections have him listed as a career backup. Barring major injuries, Sean Singletary, a three time All-ACC First Team selection, will not see much time, especially after bouncing around three training camps in less than a month.
Shooting guard: Bell, Barbosa
Position Grade: B
Raja Bell turns 32 this month, saw his scoring drop almost 3 ppg last season, and has played fewer games and minutes each of the last three seasons. Still, he has always been one of the top on-the-ball defenders in the league, having been selected to either the 1st or 2nd All-Defensive Teams in each of the last two seasons, and his play figures to be a huge part of Kerr’s movement towards higher defensive intensity. He will be primarily backed up by Barbosa, who should see over 30 mpg splitting time between both guard positions.
Small forward: Hill, Diaw, Barnes, Tucker
Position Grade: B-
It’s hard to find a guy to pull harder for than Grant Hill. Basketball’s version of Ken Griffey, Jr., Hill has seen more surgeries in the last decade than a Saw movie, and his recovery back to a consistent starter is slightly less than a miracle. Hill is the fourth starter on this squad in his mid-30s, and isn’t spectacular at one particular thing, but more than capable to deliver what is expected of him. Last season he averaged 13 ppg, 5 rpg, and over 50% shooting, all while playing reliable defense. Hill’s potential backup, Matt Barnes, walked away from a multi-year deal with the Warriors two summers ago, and is now on his second one-year deal wishing he could turn back the hands of time. Across the board, Barnes’ numbers almost all dropped last season, in larger part to losing time to Brandan Wright and Mickael Pietrus. He’ll have to work for minutes in Phoenix, as he’ll battle Diaw for primary time behind Hill. Little used Alando Tucker will have to show a lot of improvement to see any valuable minutes on a court that doesn’t feature a D-League logo on it.
Power forward: Stoudemire, Diaw, Amundson
Position Grade: A-
The hope in bringing on O’Neal was that Stoudemire’s load would be lightened on both sides of the ball. If the theory works, then Stoudemire might be poised for one of his best seasons yet. He should be an easy bet for 20 and 9, but Phoenix will not reach the upper echelon of the West unless he is able to get closer to 25 and 12. Diaw, who will see time at the three, four, and five, struggled a bit coming off the bench after two seasons as a primary starter, but he has the skills to make a huge impact, especially if Stoudemire and O’Neal become injured. Louis Amundson is a high-energy guy who will play tough defense and rebound aggressively, a good and cheap addition to Kerr’s philosophy.
Center: O’Neal, Lopez, Diaw
Position Grade: B-
O’Neal has missed over 20 games each of the last three seasons, meaning Diaw and Lopez are going to have to be ready to step up, potentially causing pacing concerns for the team. At best, O’Neal will stay close to a double-double, attract some attention away from Stoudemire, and provide interior defense. At worst, he will be an overpaid clog in the middle that slows down what Phoenix does best in running the floor. Lopez will learn from a Hall of Famer, and should see consistent minutes where he can display some of the defensive talent opponents feared in the Pac-10.
Season Prognosis:
Western Conference Rank: 6th-7th
Pacific Division Rank: 2nd
Projected Record: 51-31
Why they will finish over 55 wins:
Phoenix finally accomplishes the one thing that prevented them from reaching the NBA finals: competitive defense. The additions of O’Neal, Lopez, and Barnes should help this effort. While some teams might have more youthful talent, Phoenix benefits from mature leadership. The veterans should be entirely focused on winning a championship having already achieved personal accolades years ago. If Stoudemire, Nash, and Barbosa receive some surprising play from others in the rotation, Phoenix could again become competitive in the playoffs.
Why they will finish under 55 wins:
With a starting lineup who is more used to playing against Shawn Kemp and Jamal Mashburn than Dwight Howard and LeBron James, its easy to imagine Phoenix running out of gas a bit too early. Kerr is already talking about resting Nash more this season than ever, and if O’Neal continues his trend of missing games, the weight falls more and more on Stoudemire’s shoulders. The hopes of playing better defense are a good thought, but rarely have the acquisitions of a veteran past his prime and an unproven rookie spelled instant success.
What the GM’s thinking:
Kerr is still new to the team, but has done anything but taken a back seat. He apparently sees enough in Nash and Stoudemire to believe that they can take this team all the way with the help of a defensive scheme orchestrated by Porter. Realistically, Phoenix has two years to make the current blend work. If not, Kerr knows they’ll still have Stoudemire and an open salary cap on his side. The question remains if Nash or the fan base will be there too. |
