| Sun Of A Gun: Phoenix Needs To Reload Authored by Brent Diggins - May 25, 2007 - 1:39 pm
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This year was supposed to be the year. No more excuses. Stoudemire was back, Kurt Thomas was healthy and Nash was rolling. Alas, the Suns suffered defeat in a Western Conference that is going to get nothing but tougher next year. The Jazz and Warriors have proven their worth, the Rockets are dangerous, the Clippers, Trailblazers and Supersonics look to improve, the wild card Lakers could add a tremendous piece in Kevin Garnett or Jermaine O’ Neal all while the Mavericks and Spurs stand steadfast at the top of the division. In order to compete with all of those teams next year and to avoid decline, this off-season is critical for the Phoenix Suns. Major questions that they will have to answer revolve around Boris Diaw, Shawn Marion and their overall depth. What does their salary space look like, can they make a trade or can they do anything to keep the Suns from disappearing over the horizon?
Salary Cap and Spending: The Phoenix Suns have very little money to spend, period. They have ten player contracts accounting for $76.5 million locked in for next year (including Kurt Thomas’ $8 million dollar option, which he is certain to pick up) and five positions to fill. They will almost certainly be among the top three payrolls in the NBA, and while owner Robert Sarver has deep pockets and is willing to spend, it is questionable whether he will shell out for another $7-10 million dollar player.
The highest salaries for next year’s Suns belong to Shawn Marion ($16.4), Amare Stoudemire ($13.2), Steve Nash ($11.3), Boris Diaw ($9.0) and Kurt Thomas ($8.0). Out of those players, only two should remain untouchable this off-season, Nash and Stoudemire. Everyone else should be fair game for the Suns to do whatever they need to do in order to improve.
Places to Improve: There is one major area where Phoenix can improve. As Pat Burke pointed out, the Suns need to improve their rotation, which correlates directly to their depth. If they can manage to sure up their depth and rotation, they will put themselves in a position to compete not only for that elusive West crown, but for an NBA Championship. It won’t come easy and it won’t come without major changes.
The Depth: Some may question Mike D’ Antoni’s coaching tactics and his short rotation, but you can hardly blame him. Who would play those guys he has on his bench? You should blame the Suns’ GM. Oh wait, he is the Suns’ GM, but that is irrelevant. We are here to see how they can improve.
PG: For starters, Steve Nash, no matter how much he wants to play, needs rest during the regular season. The problem is that Marcus Banks cannot run the Suns offense as currently configured. He is a terrible shooter from both the field and from behind the arc, and has exhibited poor decision making and turnover habits. Leandro Barbosa is a shooting guard, no matter which way you cut it, and his skills aren’t best used running offenses.
SG: Raja Bell is a great role player and crucial to what the Suns do. He has the ability to guard the one, two or three positions and needs to remain a part of the team. But when you bring him out, who do you bring in? Barbosa is a dynamic sixth man, but he isn’t big and he doesn’t defend the big SGs well. On the other hand James Jones is too slow for just about any SG, and can’t do much but spot up and shoot.
SF: Right now, the Suns have good depth at the SF with Marion, Diaw and Jones. It is one area they don’t need to address.
PF/C: Okay, here is the big one. Currently the Suns have Thomas, Stoudemire and Diaw at their big positions. Marion is a three, and if he plays other positions, he’s playing out of position. He can’t guard the big PFs of San Antonio, Dallas and Denver or anyone else bigger than him. They have no skilled or veteran back-ups to throw at the teams in their way. It is almost certain that free agents Burke, thanks to his comments, and Sean Marks are goners. Either way, they are stiffs. And can you count on Kurt Thomas, who is going on 36, to play more than twenty five minutes a game? That leaves them with the foul prone Amare and the soft and underperforming Diaw. Help is needed.
Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw: Two players that factor into any changes are Marion and Diaw. Both are skilled, both are very good players, but neither is what the Suns need, especially given the value that these players can bring back in return.
Each of these players could have articles written on them alone, but the fact of the matter is that both of these players would be better off in another uniform, and the Suns would be better off getting position specific guys instead of tweeners.
When he sees he’s calling to be traded, it is likely that Marion will be crying saying he gets no respect, even though he’s paid $16 million as the third best player on the team. He is a good defender in that he is unique. He can guard four positions, or so people claim, but I’ll ask how many times has he shut down a good PF or a good PG or a good SG? He is great at guarding SF’s, but asking him to do more is overextending his tremendous athletic abilities. On the other side of the ball, it remains to be seen. The Suns run no plays run for him, but he has skills. He can shoot from three and can drive very well. The biggest glaring area is his mid-range game, which holds true for many of the Suns SFs and SGs. Can they shoot from mid-range? Perhaps, but they often move back to the three point line, which is a dangerous habit to get into.
As for Diaw, he is soft and complacent. Like Marion, he has skills, but is he asked to do too much? Would he be better in the post rather than at the wing? A big man who can pass like him out of the post is a luxury that few teams have, but many times Diaw is lined up at the free throw line extended. When Amare was hurt in 2005-06 he was a post player and flourished with his passing and quickness advantages over other centers and power forwards. This past year, he was brought further out, given less room to operate and consequently he seemed confused at times. Not to mention, he came into camp out of shape and seemed to struggle with conditioning all season.
Free Agents: Free agents are the easiest way to fill holes in the NBA. Again, the Suns are fine at the starter positions, but they have depth issues at the PG, SG and PF/C position.
As far as point guards go, the Suns need a PG who can shoot from eighteen feet consistently and who can run an offense. He doesn’t need to overly fast, quick or athletic, but needs to be smart. What free agents fit that mold? Unfortunately the list is limited. Steve Blake may fit, but he will be asking for too much. There are veterans like Jeff McGinnis and Keith McLeod, but they aren’t any better than Marcus Banks. The Suns will have to look to a trade or the draft to address this situation.
Moving onto the shooting guard position, the Suns should look for a good sized defender who can drop in some points. Players in the mold of Jarvis Hayes, Devin Brown and Dahntay Jones would be ideal, and there is a chance that one of them can be had if teams aren’t willing to match offers.
On the big side, there are a variety of wily veterans available on the back end of their careers. However, veterans usually don’t hold up well in the Suns run and gun system, but a younger big like Melvin Ely would thrive.
However, the one person that would fit them tremendously, if the Suns can afford him, is Andres Nocioni. He can defend, he is gritty and he can shoot the three. He alone could put them over the top. The best way to sign Nocioni, however is by dealing Diaw or Marion.
The Draft: Well, the Suns sure got screwed in the draft. If Atlanta dropped one spot lower, they would have had the fourth pick. As it is they have two first round picks, the 24th and 29th. That doesn’t mean that they can’t get someone skilled to fill a PG, SG or PF/C need. The Suns must avoid tweeners and project players at all costs. They have too many tweeners already, and are a team that is contending so getting someone polished who can step in right away would be ideal.
They should seriously consider PG help as that may be the hardest position to fill. However, like the free agent class, the Suns will be hard pressed to find something good, unless they take a chance and let that player learn under the best PG in the NBA. If they remain in the draft, good gamble PGs could be the undersized Dominic James or Sean Singletary. While undersized, the West has a lot of PGs that feature quickness not size.
Both of these players can drive and, if they are “on,” shoot the lights out. They’d thrive in Phoenix’s fast paced offense, and with Nash’s guidance can only get better. They should take these players with their 29th pick and no higher. If Jarvis Crittendon is available at the 24th pick, he is a no brainer. (**note—in 2006 the Suns selected Rajon Rondo and Sergio Rodriguez and traded them both, instead chose to sign Marcus Banks! Oops.)
On the SG side, two guys who are polished and mature, that will be available at one or both picks are Aaron Afflalo and Morris Almond. Both are good shooters and have size. Out of those two players, they should choose Almond if he is available.
If the Suns choose to go after a PF/C, they won’t be getting a star. They should just look for size to serve as a foul stiff to relieve Thomas and Stoudemire. Some options include Aaron Grey, Nick Fazekas, or the best option if available, is Marc Gasol, who actually has upside and would fit in with Phoenix and D’Antoni’s philosophy and style. Must drafts, if they drop, include Jason Smith and Tiago Splitter, but both are unlikely to fall so far.
Trades: As I’m sure you guessed by now, the two players that the Suns need to try and deal are Shawn Marion and Boris Diaw. Many teams may be leery to touch Marion’s gigantic contract, but there are only two years remaining on it. On the other hand, Diaw earns $9 million per year over the next four, with a player option in the fifth year.
The prime target for a trade is the same target that everyone has in their crosshairs, Kevin Garnett. They can get both Marion and Diaw giving the Wolves both an elite player and an inside scorer, roughly for the same price as Garnett. The Suns may have to toss in a pick or two, but this trade could benefit both teams. As mentioned, Marion expires in two years, which will end before any potential Garnett extension. Marion would also get to be the “man,” which he has always wanted. Would the Wolves do any worse than the thirty-two wins they posted last season? Doubtful, but they would have young quality talent going into the future.
Perhaps the Suns and Bulls can work out a Diaw for Nocioni, giving the Bulls an inside scorer and the Suns the toughness they need.
Or would Jordan be tempted to package Gerald Wallace and Brevin Knight for Marion, who is a better scoring option and could turn into a nice number one option? If it doesn’t work out, the Bobcats would have huge salary cap space once Marion’s deal expires. On the Suns’ side, it would give them the solid back-up PG they need and a defensive monster in Wallace, who for the money is a much more intimidating and better defender at both the SF and SG spots. His run and gun style would thrive in the Suns’ system.
With the window on Nash’s dominance closing by the season, the Suns need to make a serious run for a championship. The current team, with its lack of depth and undefined roles has found it hard already, and will only find it harder as the West gets even better. For the sake of Nash, do something Phoenix Suns because nightfall is quickly approaching taking the brightness and hope of the Suns with it.
Brent Diggins is a freelance writer, an avid NBA fan, and the President of Diggs Communications, a Phoenix based marketing firm. You can reach him at brentd@diggspr.com. |
