| Will The Suns Miss The Playoffs? Authored by Brandon Hoffman - March 10, 2008 - 5:12 pm
"If it works, I'm a genius. If it doesn't, I'm a moron, I guess." -- Steve Kerr on the Shaq trade
The Phoenix Suns earned a hard fought 94-87 victory over the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday.
Phoenix is now 4-6 since the Big Cactus arrived. Shaquille O’Neal finished 6-for-11 with 14 points, 16 rebounds, and two blocks. The Diesel also defended Tim Duncan for key stretches and held the Big Fundamental to 6-of-19 shooting and only 1 assist.
Sunday's game seemed to mark of a change of philosophy in the Valley of the Sun. The Suns delivered the ball to Shaq early and often. That change in philosophy is imperative to their potential success. Shaquille O'Neal has never fit in with any team. Father time has caught up with Shaq but he still shoots 57% from the field. Steve Nash and Amare Stoudemire are most effective in the open court. What's the point of slowing down the offense if you're not going to make your best half-court player the focal point?
Shaq gives Phoenix another option in the low-post and has improved their rebounding but the subtraction of Marion and addition of O'Neal has made Phoenix worse defensively. The only way to offset Phoenix's newfound deficiencies in defending the pick-and-roll and getting back in transition defense is to get Shaq more shots. Phoenix did that in the first half and Shaq responded by posting 12 points and 11 rebounds.
The Suns were giving up an average of 104 points before Shaq's arrival. Since Shaq came to town, Phoenix has given up an additional 7 points per game. The Suns however turned up the defensive intensity late in Sunday's game. Phoenix went on a 14-2 run in the final 3:40 and held Michael Finley, Robert Horry, Ime Udoka, Damon Stoudamire and Bowen to a combined 4-for-22 from the field.
Has Phoenix found the right balance? Are they ready to turn the corner?
I don't think so. Two of Phoenix’s four victories since trading for Shaq have come against super-powers Boston and San Antonio. Those victories are misleading. Surprisingly, the Suns match up well with both because neither possesses a high-octane offense. Both are half-court teams. The Suns have may have improved some facets of their half-court offense and defense but unfortunately for them, the NBA isn't a half-court league any longer. Teams like the Lakers, Jazz, Warriors, and Nuggets are capable of playing a slow and fast paced game. With Marion, the Suns ran on everyone, now everyone runs on them.
The NBA is all about match-ups. The Suns simply do not match up well with the Western Conference. Phoenix is 19-18 in conference play this season, 2 1/2 games ahead of the 8th seeded Golden State Warriors. Here is their remaining schedule:
March
Tue 11 vs. Memphis
Thu 13 vs. Golden State
Sat 15 vs. Sacramento
Tue 18 @ Portland
Wed 19 @ Seattle
Sat 22 vs. Houston
Mon 24 @ Detroit
Wed 26 @ Boston
Fri 28 @ Philadelphia
Sat 29 @ New Jersey
Mon 31 vs. Denver 7:00pm
April
Tue 01 @ Denver
Fri 04 vs. Minnesota
Sun 06 vs. Dallas
Tue 08 @ Memphis
Wed 09 @ San Antonio
Fri 11 @ Houston
Mon 14 vs. Golden State
Wed 16 vs. Portland
There are 19 games left. Eight of those 19 are against Western Conference playoff competition. Four of the 8 are against high-octane running teams Denver and Golden State. The Nuggets and Warriors will be playing for their playoff lives. Two games are against Eastern Conference super-powers Boston and Detroit. Mike D'Antoni remarked that yesterday's game had a "playoff atmosphere." He and the Suns had better get used to that "atmosphere" because from here on out making the playoffs is at stake.
That's why I'm predicting the Sun will miss the playoffs.
No one is going to give the Suns anything. They're going to have to earn a postseason birth and quite frankly, I don't think the Suns are capable of taking what they thought was already theirs.
Phoenix still has a shot of turning things around but as I mentioned above, that shot is dependant upon Shaq getting more touches and putting together a string of performances similar to his numbers on Sunday. Part of the responsibility to assimilate him into the offense falls on coach Mike D’Antoni. More of it falls on Shaq. O’Neal must work for and demand the basketball. Due to age, apathy, and ineptitude, I don’t think Shaq or the Suns are up to the task.
- Please feel free to contact Brandon Hoffman via e-mail (ballerblogger@yahoo.com) with comments or questions. |
